Developing Career Resilience With Futures Thinking

Welcome to the third post about my futures thinking learning journey! You can find my introduction post about the topic here and some case studies here.

In this post, I will be discussing about the relevance of futures thinking as a water engineer in Singapore and how it has benefitted me in terms of career resilience.

The Research Process

Living in Singapore, clean and drinkable water is easily accessible with just the turn of the tap in our homes or at public spaces such as parks and malls. However, things were not this rosy just a few decades ago. Without natural fresh water resources like glacier fed rivers, lakes or even groundwater, Singapore had experienced water rationing (Apr 1963 – Feb 1964) in the past and relies heavily on imported water from Malaysia for self sustenance.

For the younger generations born in Singapore, we may not be able to fully comprehend the lifestyle challenges caused by water supply disruptions or the lack of trustable and consistent good quality water. Take the city of Flint in the United States where locals were exposed to dangerous levels of lead and other harmful contaminants in their potable water beginning 2014. This was due to poor water treatment capabilities and operational financing of the local government and water utilities. Residents had to live on bottled water for all their household activities, losing their trust in the quality of water coming out from their taps. For the children affected by lead poisoning, they are at risk of experiencing stunned development and weakened immunity. The social and economic repercussions caused by the water crisis is likely to be significant in the coming decades as residents combat the onset of negative health effects caused by lead poisoning.

Another example of a city in dire need for sufficient clean water supply is Cape Town, South Africa. Infamous for its impending Day Zero, municipal water utilities are expected to turn off the water supply and conduct water rationing when the water levels of major dams providing water for the city are critically low. This will make its mark in history, as Cape Town becomes the first major city to ‘run out of water’. Despite having several natural water sources around the region (rivers, lakes, groundwater), the unsustainable extraction of water from these sources coupled with the lack of rainfall to replenish them are two of the main reasons why Day Zero could happen anytime soon. As a result, locals are living with both worry and fear while aggressively lowering their water consumption in any ways possible.

On the other hand, Israel is renowned for their advanced water technology and water management practices. Situated in an arid region, Israel was able to secure enough water for their residences, and a successful agriculture industry that requires a lot of water to sustain. Their country’s success stems from long term planning and prioritisation of water infrastructure development and R&D. From the adoption of desalination supplying around 80% of the water demand, lowering agricultural water usage with the use of drip irrigation to the recycling of about 90% of their used water, Israel now has a water surplus. Going forward, Israel can help their neighbouring countries secure their water resilience by sharing the relevant knowledge and expertise, as well as the sale of surplus potable water.

Envisioning Alternate Futures of Water

Through the research process, I was able to expand my understanding of different water management practices around the world while empathising with those facing water related challenges. Practicing hard empathy not only helps me stay grounded and appreciative of the benefits (water security) we have in Singapore today, it also helps futurists get creative in envisioning different future scenarios for their area of interest. Some of the outcomes of envisioning alternate future scenarios include: evoking anxiety or optimism for the future, identify threats and opportunities, and lastly to develop strategies and take action towards creating a desired future.

To begin, four different types of future developments are explored: Growth, Constrain, Transformational and Collapse. Below are my own examples for the future of water.

Growth: In the year 2032, landlocked countries especially in the equatorial regions come under severe water stress while countries in the temperate regions begin to ramp up efforts to revise their policies for better water governance. The silver lining lies in cheaper and more efficient large-scale desalination plants and distribution pipelines to alleviate water stresses in critical regions.

Constrain: In the year 2032, people’s fears over the cleanliness and the adequacy of water recycling technology prevents major acceptance of drinking water recycled from used water. This is aggravated by actual case studies of people’s health being compromised by inadequate treatment or lapse in treatment processes when recycling used water. Activity groups raise concerns, citizens lose faith in water utilities and R&D in water treatment technology plummets due to the diminishing attractiveness of the investment. As such, even though the water industry will continue to develop, the pace will be much slower.

Collapse: In the year 2032, severe climate change decimates ecological services globally, leading to water scarcity levels outpacing all future projections. Countries with water resources close their boundaries to preserve what they have for self-sustenance, leaving countries without water resources to fend for themselves. Global civil disorder develops, astronomical death counts arises due to starvation and infectious diseases due to unhygienic living conditions and sky-high prices for water in the open markets or even black markets.

Transformational: In the year 2032, every resident in a city/country will have a unique digital chip implanted in him or her for identification and transactional purposes (linked to their e-wallets). Citizens will be allocated a cap on the amount of water to be consumed on a monthly basis, tracked by their digital chip that is linked to the IOT, powered by blockchain technology. Citizens will have to manage their water consumption by consciously choosing their diet (accounting for virtual water) and activities (bathing, lawn watering etc). Exceeding the monthly quota will lead to high penalty bills while unused quota can be carried over or encashed. These individual water quotas will vary depending on different countries and cities based on the abundance of water supply. Hence, the future population is expected to migrate frequently depending on their affordability and lifestyle requirements.

Career Resilience and Sense of Purpose

Although the above scenarios above are hypothetical, each scenario could exist in different places around the world, at different time periods or scale. These scenarios serve as a baseline of sorts for futurists and relevant stakeholders to begin identifying strategies to cope with all of the identified potential impacts. As a futurists looking at the constrain scenario, I would recommend water utilities and local municipalities to accelerate the upgrading of treatment processes or implement phases of public awareness campaign on the reliability and safety of water recycling. Whereas for the transformation scenario, I would suggest for governments and institutions to begin embarking on long term studies to determine the sustainable daily water consumption limit for their country and make plans to transit people’s lifestyle. Having the awareness of the different futures provides stakeholders today the ability to prepare themselves holistically.

As a water engineer, I could look at the growth scenario and make career preparations to learn more about desalination and membrane technologies. I could also do personal research on network systems and construction, or even volunteer myself to take on relevant projects to develop my expertise in those fields. Should the growth scenario play out in the future, I will be able to adapt and transit smoothly in my career in the water industry. Most importantly, anticipating the potential futures and knowing how I can play a meaningful part in them give me a sense of purpose when I work and accumulate experience in my field.

Concluding

Going through and practicing the futures thinking process, I realised that it is the attitude of a futurist, to be open minded, curious and adaptable, that is essential in enabling our society the agility to anticipate and tackle future challenges effectively. Borrowing a quote from Sun Tze to reinforce the above:

"Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are sure to be defeated in every battle."

– Sun Tze, The Art of War

Why not try out futures thinking for yourself? In your field of work or interest, identify the possible futures ahead and anticipate the complimentary skills and knowledge required. Be future ready by readying yourself mentally and capability-wise.

Hope the sharing about what I have learnt during my futures thinking journey has been helpful, see you in the brighter future ahead!