How Can We Take Action On Our Future Thinking Insights?

Welcome to the second post about my futures thinking learning journey!

In this post, I will be using two different insights to expand the discussion into the next phase of the futures thinking process - taking Action. To reiterate the futures thinking process, it is a three-step cycle: Foresight, Insight and Action. You can find my introduction post about futures thinking here, where I discuss about the foresight and insight processes.

Taking Action

To say that we should rally behind the generated insights and call for action amongst individuals and stakeholders can be very vague. Thankfully, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) has established several methodological approaches for action taking. These are some of my favourites which I felt were both fun and effective when put into practice:

1. Identify and analyse images of the future. This process triggers anxiety for action if it’s a dismal future. On the contrary, interests and buy in can be facilitated if the outlook for the future is positive.
2. Create artefacts from the future. This step involves the making of a possible physical product from the future for individuals to interact with today. Here is an example by IFTF (https://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/artifact-from-the-future-the-cost-of-water/), which aims to stir emotions and realisation about the gravity of the water shortage situation should climate change continue to intensify.
3. Define a preferred future and work backwards. In contrast to the first two approaches which could trigger actions due to fear or worry, this approach encourages action through optimism. By working backwards, one can identify small actions that has to be taken, and by whom, while keeping a lookout for pitfalls that could derail meaningful progress.
4. Increase optimism and build a roadmap. Begin by rating your optimism towards any future on a scale from 1 to 10. Then brainstorm ways to increase your optimism by a single point. Create a roadmap using these actions that you can take, starting with the easiest tasks first to create success and momentum.

Technology – Friend or Foe?

Futurists have identified technological advancement as one of the major drivers in the macro environment. These advancements come with mind-blowing leaps in technological capabilities that can improve the quality of life for both you and me. Examples include having a dedicated virtual assistant in your pocket (think Siri and Google) or drones for swift deliveries, cheaper topographic surveys and even surveillance in territories that are dangerous for us to enter.

On the flip side, each of these developments has its fair share of risks when misused. Hackers can obtain personal information easily through your virtual assistant systems, while the drones can be used for spying or to carry out acts of violence! Check out the devastating potential of what drones can do when they are equipped with weapons and programmed with the intention to cause harm (www.autonomousweapons.org). Since technological advancements often outpace the implementation of legislation and policy, the lack of regulation can leave our society highly vulnerable to the repercussions of technological misuse and exploitation.

Despite the risks and dangers that come along with the improvement of technology, I believe that we can be prepared for these challenges and manage them sensibly. It is therefore important that we sieve out insights from this macro trend, and take early action against these challenges before too much harm is done. Below are two insights I am particularly worried about, so let’s see what urgent actions can be taken to mitigate their risks!

Fake News and Social Media’s Viral Marketing Potential

Remember the days where the newspapers and televised broadcasting were the main legitimate sources of breaking news? With the advent of the Internet, news sources are now accessible with just a tap on our mobile devices. Increasingly, news and updates are also being ‘pushed’ to you through social media platforms by your connections, and through advertisements using sophisticated algorithms to match your interests simply based on your browsing history.

With such a high exposure to media content, it isn’t surprising that people’s opinions and emotions can be easily influenced unconsciously. What’s even more worrying is the prevalence of unverified news, commonly termed as fake news. Just look at the 2016 US presidential elections! Experts and even the academia have concluded that the spread of fake news across various media platforms has had a significant impact on the election outcomes. Fake news is now even harder to identify with the rise of deepfake algorithms, which has the ability to create seemingly legit videos of individuals endorsing specific movements or conducting themselves inappropriately. Would you be able to tell that former President Obama in this video was a fake?

What actions can we take to combat fake news? As a thought experiment, I would personally like to see the development of a news/media platform that leverages on blockchain technology to ascertain the legitimacy of all its published content (method #2 of taking action – artefact from the future). It is similar to what we see at Wikipedia, which also goes to show that a potential solution to combat fake news isn’t that far fetched. With this simple thought experiment, existing media companies can begin to ascertain their trustworthiness today by leveraging on smart contracts to validate their published content. Web developers can also take an entrepreneurial approach by creating and managing their own media platform, hosting legitimate news and content.

Hackable Self-Driving Cars

Let us imagine a future scenario (method #1 of taking action) where cars have achieved full self-driving capabilities and people like you and me are used to being chauffeured around in a driverless car. One day, the car you are in suddenly takes a different route and drive you to a dubious location. Without any control of the car, you are held hostage until a sizeable amount of money has been paid to the hacker who hijacked your car remotely. You are now one of the thousands who have fallen victim to the infamous car hijacking syndicate.

That was a pretty bleak, yet possible future of self-driving cars. As AI and machine learning capabilities improve in the coming years, it is expected that fully autonomous driving will become a reality in the near future. The key to addressing the potential risk of driverless cars being hijacked begins in the development phase. Preventive measures need to and can be taken today. Companies developing self-driving software have to ensure that layers of security are encoded into their programs and are sufficiently stress tested to identify gaps that hackers could exploit. Insurance companies can price their car insurances more accurately with the anticipation of autonomous cars being hijacked to ensure their company’s profitability while providing better coverage for the insured individuals.

Concluding

It can be quite demoralising to imagine bleak and unpleasant futures. However, the main goal isn’t to just dwell in the negativity. Instead, futurists use these scenarios to empower organisations and institutions with the critical information to ensure that preventive measures are planned and implemented today to protect their bottom line or continue to deliver on their mission. On the other side of the spectrum, visualising positive futures can motivate stakeholders to take strategic actions today to maximise the benefits they can receive in the future.

From your perspective and experience, how would you act upon the two insights share above?

What other potential solutions can you think of to address the identified challenges?

Remember, there are no right or wrong answers when it comes to futures thinking! It’s more about coming up with your own unique and realistic solutions to tackle the challenges of tomorrow.