Learning To Be A Futurist
What if you had the ability to forecast the future of something in which you are very interested?
How would you act on the information from that forecast?
How different would you live your life today?
This may sound iffy at first, but there are established methodologies behind futures thinking developed by the Institute For The Future (IFTF). The aim of futures thinking isn’t to predict accurately what the future would be. Rather, it is to explore creatively possible outcomes for the future of a particular subject of your interest using clues that are already present around us today. There are a myriad of benefits in practicing futures thinking. For the individual, futures thinking can empower personal readiness. To make preparation according to the forecasts such that you are not caught off guard or made obsolete by the transformations in the future. For businesses or Governments, futures thinking provide ways to look for opportunities to tackle tomorrow’s challenges and in the process, make the world a more equitable place for everyone.
Futures Thinking Methodology
Briefly, the futures thinking process is a three-step cycle: Foresight, Insight and Action.
Futurists believe that clues of the future are scattered all around the world today. And it takes an observant and open-minded perspective to:
(i) be able to identify the clues
(ii) understand the drivers in the global landscape
(iii) run simulations about possible futures using these clues and drivers
Some examples of clues would be the increasing droughts in many regions of the world, inundation of coastlines, rising ambient temperatures or the decrease in ice covers in the polar regions. Piecing them together gives rise to the driver called climate change. With these information, scientists/futurists can simulate possible future scenarios where climate change becomes rampant or gets controlled thanks to the collective effort of mankind. Importantly, forecasts are backed by facts and figures, which makes them possible yet provocative.
Personal Foresight and Insight Exercise
During my specialisation course with IFTF, I had several opportunities to practice the methodologies to generate a foresight on my own. Let me share with you an exercise I did to better understand the process of generating a foresight and insight. Below are three unique clues that I found online for the exercise:
1. https://www.thefuturescentre.org/signal/are-time-millionaires-the-answer-to-a-new-way-of-working/
This article talks about a paradigm shift within the future or younger working community. From working long hours and financial incentive focus to greater focus on leisure and experience based lifestyle.
2. https://www.thefuturescentre.org/how-will-we-govern-in-the-city-of-the-future/
This article discusses various factors in which the future cities could be governed. From the need to leverage on technology and anticipate how its adoption will change the lifestyle and work patterns of the society, to engaging the younger generation more for their inputs into governance planning and larger concerns of their future.
3. https://www.thefuturescentre.org/signal/as-solar-panels-cover-more-land-pollinators-and-plants-underneath-receive-greater-attention/
This article identifies the increasing adoption of solar power, and the likely shifts it could bring about in the environmental and agricultural space. Specifically, to create synergistic benefits in energy generation, food cultivation and environmental preservation through multiple land use.
Using the three clues above, a possible future could entail the following:
With technological advancement, geographical boundaries and time zone differences are easily bypassed. As the citizens of the future lean towards informal and international employment, governments and employers will need to revamp their hiring processes to match the changing preference of the working class in order to attract and leverage on their contributions for local planning and developmental projects. Ideally, work contracts will offer both time flexibility and benefits such as remote work, choice of specific work package from different on-going projects or the rights to hold multiple work contracts simultaneously from different employers! Such a flexible work economy would be crucial in spurring ideation and implementation of innovative solutions from creative and motivated individuals to tackle the effects/ challenges of climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been reiterating, the world needs to collectively act now to tackle climate change. It is time to shatter the traditional expectations of employment and revamp hiring methods to anticipate and match the changing needs and preferences of the next generation!
Traits of Futurists
The above is just one possible scenario that I thought of alone. The magic happens when futurists collaborate and come together to create different scenarios using the same clues provided. There is no right or wrong in generating simulations whenever new perspectives and ideas are considered. In fact, it would be a pre-requisite for futurists to practice mental flexibility, to be open to change their scenarios as new clues from research and observations are considered.
It is through multiple simulations where the most probable few scenarios are selected and analysed to derive insights to be acted upon. It is also the responsibility of futurists to exercise creativity and practical skepticism, to come up with and choose futures that are realistic (backed by facts and observations) and probable instead of being influenced by temporary hype or soundless claims.
If I were to put another spin to the above scenario, the demand for future offices and workplaces could be lower in the future as most of the work takes place virtually. Would this new scenario then weaken the demand for office real estate? If so, how would a real estate developer or investor act upon this possible insight? Empathising with different personas provide detailed insights regarding the impacts of future scenarios on the society. As mentioned earlier, such insights are crucial for the individual and institutions when it comes to personal preparedness or better policy making/ governance for a more equitable society.
Concluding
Throughout my specialisation course with IFTF, I came to better appreciate the work of futurists and the immense value that their work brings to the world. By predicting possible futures, businesses can innovate and stay ahead of their competitors. Institutions can anticipate the changing macro environment and create strategies to ensure sustainable societal progress. For the individual, he or she can focus on seeking progressive changes within their locus of control in the present, to nurture conditions for their preferred futures to emerge.
There is so much potential for the world to progress into a better state with the help of future literacy and the forward-looking attitudes that comes with the practice of futures thinking.
In the next posts, I will dwell in more examples of foresight and insights, using those examples to discuss about the next phase of the futures thinking process (taking Action) and how I intend to apply what I have learnt into my life!